How grateful are we feeling as we head into Week 13? With Thanksgiving Week upon us, I hope everyone reading has a very happy and healthy Thanksgiving!
Here’s how we’re attacking the slate before we overserve and overpour ourselves. Let’s get stuck in and hope there are no turkeys on the field...
There are a ton of great NFL betting promos out there this week for Thanksgiving.
As always, FanDuel's running their standard profit boosts on primetime games, with an option of boosts from you to choose from.
DraftKings usually has their stepped-up same-game parlays this week.
And don't forget to check Caesars and Fanatics for their second-chance offers. Every sportsbook basically has a decent offer this week!
A little something to get our beaks wet in the first game of Week 13. This is currently -120 at BetMGM. Coming off a zero catch week against the Giants, it’s a buy low spot for JaMo and I fully expect the Lions to get him back involved early and often.
Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties, Williams has lit it up clearing 65 yards in 3 of those 4 games.
I am betting on Williams to prove Sunday’s game was an outlier and fully expect him to clear 50+ yards.
Thanksgiving favorites are 56-12 straight up and 43-25 against the spread since 2000.
In that same span, there have been 32 total road favorites, like the Chiefs this week, and they are 29-3 straight up and 22-10 against the spread. Obviously, the Lions and Cowboys are two Thanksgiving constants, but they both haven’t covered on Thanksgiving since 2001.
Dak Prescott is just 2-5 against the spread on Thanksgiving. Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are just 8-14 against the spread in games following a loss. The Patriots have won 9 straight games. Teams that played the Jets the week prior are now 1-9 against the spread in their next game.
As I say every week, please remember that the above points are purely talking points and are not betting guidance.
I’ll probably regret this, but give me the 3.5 at home on Thanksgiving against the reigning AFC champs.
The Dallas offense, led by Dak Prescott, has been terrific all season with nearly 6 yards per play and 30 points per game. And despite beating the Eagles on a walk-off field goal last week, I felt Dallas actually outplayed them. They had two costly turnovers in plus territory, one in the red zone and one at the Philly 30. They averaged 7 yards per play against one of the best defenses in the league.
Now they get another elite defense in Kansas City, but the spot sets up nicely for Dallas. The Chiefs are coming off a long, emotional OT win against the Colts on Sunday and now have the shortest turnaround possible. Historically, that matters:
(Yes, the Raiders did cover against Denver a few weeks ago in this spot.
As for the Dallas defense, it’s looked a lot better since the bye with key guys returning from injury and the Quinnen Williams trade paying immediate dividends. They’ve allowed 3.5 and 2.3 yards per rush in the two games since. The secondary still scares me, especially with Mahomes and Reid coming to town , but the Chiefs still haven’t looked like their old, explosive selves.
I’ll take the home dog getting 3.5 points while you and your cousins go for that walk.
In what’s suddenly a tight AFC South race, I like the Texans catching points on the road in Indy, with or without CJ Stroud.
The Colts are coming off a brutal overtime loss in which their defense was on the field for 91 plays and nearly 43 minutes. That kind of workload is tough to bounce back from in just a week. Meanwhile, Houston rolls in with extra rest after their TNF upset over Buffalo.
Daniel Jones has cooled off after his hot start, and this Texans defense is simply built to give him problems. This is the same unit that just sacked Josh Allen eight times and forced three turnovers against one of the best offenses in the league.
Give me 4.5 in a huge divisional matchup with massive playoff implications.
Look, I’m just not sold on giving Cody Bellinger a massive four-plus year deal at $25–30 million a year. Under the hood, he overperformed, and I’m skeptical he repeats it. And honestly? The market has told us what they think of him for three straight offseasons! One age-30 spike shouldn’t suddenly rewrite history.
Versatile outfielders can be found younger and cheaper. If you really want to swing big? Give me Kyle Tucker every single day of the week. He’s younger, he’s better and yeah, he’ll cost a lot more… but who cares? You’re the New York freaking Yankees.
Stop crying poor, Hal.
Week 13 is when the league officially shifts into playoff mode.
Bye weeks are nearly finished and teams are grinding through the wear-and-tear that defines December football. Books tighten up as sample sizes grow, but volatility increases as injuries accumulate and motivation levels start to diverge between contenders, pretenders, and teams looking toward the draft.
Here’s how to approach Week 13 like a pro:
Week 13 rewards discipline, context, and timing. Let the public chase narratives… and position yourself where the value quietly appears.
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