NFL Best Bets Week 4 | Lines, Picks, Prop Bets & More

Week 4 is here and we're closing out the first quarter of the NFL season with absolute chaos. We’ve got a number of backup quarterbacks already making starts.

We have a handful of coaches already on the hot seat, looking at you: Mike McDaniel, Brian Daboll, and Brian Callahan.

Let’s get into what should be an exciting Week 4, shall we?!

NFL Betting Lines: Week 4

The Giants are throwing rookie Jaxson Dart into the fire for his first NFL start after benching Russell Wilson, which caused their line to tick up from +5.5 to +6.5.

The Bills are laying 17 against the Saints - the biggest spread we've seen all year. And Monday Night Football? A battle of the winless with the 0-3 Jets traveling to face the 0-3 Dolphins, with Miami somehow favored by 2.5.

If this week doesn't perfectly capture the beautiful insanity of NFL betting, I don't know what does.

NFL Week 4 Trends

Here are some nuggets I found interesting:

Some nuggets I found interesting:

• Patrick Mahomes as an underdog:

  • 12-3-1 ATS.

  • Catching +3 at home vs. Baltimore on Sunday Night — that’s basically printing money.

• Jets in Miami:

  • Haven’t won there since October 4, 2015.

  • Only one shot per year to break the streak.

  • Seems like there’s been too much time at E11even, not enough on the game plan!

• International games:

  • Favorites have dominated: 36-13-1 straight up and 32-18 ATS

  • Early kickoffs + travel = chaos that better teams handle while lesser ones crumble

• Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers:

  • 15-5-1 ATS as head coach.

Don’t blindly follow these trends. They’re just some nuggets I found interesting.

NFL Week 4 Promos: Can't-Miss Bonuses

Time to close out September strong with these book NFL promos:

FanDuel and DraftKings are both dropping 50% profit boosts on Thursday Night Football markets - double up with both if you've got a strong TNF lean.

Fanatics have their no sweat token active, getting your stake back in bonus bets if you lose.

These Week 4 promos are especially valuable when you use ProfitDuel’s tools to help you profit accordingly. 

Best Prop Bets NFL Week 4: Players to Watch

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 81.5 receiving yards

JSN has cleared this number in literally every game this season, and now he gets an Arizona secondary that's being held together with duct tape and prayers. This kid's commanding a ridiculous 42% target share and 58% of Seattle's air yards - those aren't typos!

The Cardinals are down multiple defensive backs and on a short week, they won't have time to scheme around Seattle's passing attack. When a receiver is getting nearly half his team's targets and over half the air yards against a depleted secondary, 81.5 yards is a must bet.

Chris Olave over receiving yards

Don't let the slow start fool you - Olave's underlying metrics are screaming breakout. He's pulling a 31% target share and over a third of the Saints' total air yards. Those are WR1 numbers that just haven't been translated yet. New Orleans is a massive dog against Buffalo (+17!), which means garbage time is coming early and often. The Bills' secondary is their weak link, and when you're trailing by three scores, you're not running the ball. This former Buckeye is due for a pop game, and this is the perfect storm for it to happen.

NFL Predictions and Picks Week 4: Our Top Plays

• Falcons +3 - It should be Marcus Mariota stepping in for the injured Jayden Daniels again, Atlanta just got absolutely embarrassed 30-0 last week. We’re going to buy low here on the Falcons as I think they come back pissed. This Falcons team has too much talent to lay eggs back-to-back weeks. Getting three points at home when the other team's starting a backup? Sign me up.
  
  
• Packers -6 - This is Micah Parsons' revenge game and I'm backing it. Yeah, the Packers just lost to the lowly Browns, but don't let that fool you - Green Bay's defense is legit, one of the top units in DVOA.
  
  Meanwhile, Dallas is running out a bottom-five defense that ranks bottom-10 in explosive play rate allowed. Their secondary is absolutely banged up, and now they're facing a Packers offense that ranks top-5 in explosive play rate. That's a mismatch waiting to happen.
  
  Green Bay's defense should control this game while their offense exploits a Cowboys secondary that can't stay healthy. No CeeDee Lamb either for the Cowboys is a massive loss.
  
  
• Cardinals +1.5 - NFC West primetime game on a short week? Give me the home dog every single time. The travel, the quick turnaround, the division familiarity - it all points to a close, ugly game. Arizona's at home, basically getting a pick 'em, in a game that'll probably be decided by a last second field goal. I'll roll the dice with the home dog in this spot.

NFL Tips Week 4: Betting Like a Pro 

We’ve broken down the lines, props, parlays, and trends — but here’s where it all comes together. Think of these five tips as the secret sauce that sharp bettors lean on to cut through the Week 4 noise and find real edges. Ignore them at your own risk.

1. Don’t Let Your Promos Go to Waste: Use matched betting to lock in profit from sign-up offers, boosts, and insurance bets. Promos aren’t just perks — they’re guaranteed value when used smartly (more on this in the next section).
   
   
2. Fade the Overreactions: Line shifts after preseason injuries or trades often create inflated spreads. Staying disciplined and betting against public overreaction is where sharp bettors make their money in Week 4.
   
   
3. Stick to Divisional Dogs: History favors divisional underdogs catching points early. These teams know each other too well for lopsided lines, making them some of the most reliable Week 1 value plays. Use EV to Max Long Term Profit: Always look for bets with positive expected value. Over time, EV betting separates lucky bettors from consistent winners — it’s the sharpest edge you can have.
   
   
4. Use EV to Max Long Term Profit: Always look for bets with positive expected value. Over time, EV betting separates lucky bettors from consistent winners — it’s the sharpest edge you can have.
   
   
5. Keep Parlays in Check: Same-game parlays can be fun, but they’re not a profit engine. Bet them for entertainment only, and never let them replace your core straight wagers.

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