Week 4 is here and we're closing out the first quarter of the NFL season with absolute chaos. We’ve got a number of backup quarterbacks already making starts.
We have a handful of coaches already on the hot seat, looking at you: Mike McDaniel, Brian Daboll, and Brian Callahan.
Let’s get into what should be an exciting Week 4, shall we?!
The Giants are throwing rookie Jaxson Dart into the fire for his first NFL start after benching Russell Wilson, which caused their line to tick up from +5.5 to +6.5.
The Bills are laying 17 against the Saints - the biggest spread we've seen all year. And Monday Night Football? A battle of the winless with the 0-3 Jets traveling to face the 0-3 Dolphins, with Miami somehow favored by 2.5.
If this week doesn't perfectly capture the beautiful insanity of NFL betting, I don't know what does.
Here are some nuggets I found interesting:
Some nuggets I found interesting:
Patrick Mahomes as an underdog:
12-3-1 ATS.
Catching +3 at home vs. Baltimore on Sunday Night — that’s basically printing money.
Jets in Miami:
Haven’t won there since October 4, 2015.
Only one shot per year to break the streak.
Seems like there’s been too much time at E11even, not enough on the game plan!
International games:
Favorites have dominated: 36-13-1 straight up and 32-18 ATS
Early kickoffs + travel = chaos that better teams handle while lesser ones crumble
Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers:
15-5-1 ATS as head coach.
Don’t blindly follow these trends. They’re just some nuggets I found interesting.
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JSN has cleared this number in literally every game this season, and now he gets an Arizona secondary that's being held together with duct tape and prayers. This kid's commanding a ridiculous 42% target share and 58% of Seattle's air yards - those aren't typos!
The Cardinals are down multiple defensive backs and on a short week, they won't have time to scheme around Seattle's passing attack. When a receiver is getting nearly half his team's targets and over half the air yards against a depleted secondary, 81.5 yards is a must bet.
Don't let the slow start fool you - Olave's underlying metrics are screaming breakout. He's pulling a 31% target share and over a third of the Saints' total air yards. Those are WR1 numbers that just haven't been translated yet. New Orleans is a massive dog against Buffalo (+17!), which means garbage time is coming early and often. The Bills' secondary is their weak link, and when you're trailing by three scores, you're not running the ball. This former Buckeye is due for a pop game, and this is the perfect storm for it to happen.
We’ve broken down the lines, props, parlays, and trends — but here’s where it all comes together. Think of these five tips as the secret sauce that sharp bettors lean on to cut through the Week 4 noise and find real edges. Ignore them at your own risk.
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