March Madness is famous for its upsets.
Every year, lower-seeded teams defy expectations, busting brackets and creating unforgettable Cinderella stories. With the 2026 NCAA Tournament now in full swing, it's time to break down the biggest March Madness upset predictions, from the early rounds to potential Final Four shockers.
Whether you're filling out your bracket or looking for betting value, this post has everything you need to know about the potential upsets that could shake up this year’s tournament.
In NCAA Tournament terms, an upset occurs when a team beats an opponent seeded at least five spots higher. That means a 12-seed over a 5-seed, or a 14-seed shocking a 3-seed, fits the bill.
Historically, certain seeds have been more prone to upsets than others, most notably, the classic 12-over-5 upset. However, every year brings unique matchups and potential surprises, so let's dive into this year's most dangerous lower-seeded teams.
March Madness is a time of year when unexpected victories and shocking outcomes capture the attention of basketball fans across the nation. This unpredictable nature of the tournament has cemented its reputation as a thrilling spectacle, where lower-seeded teams often defy expectations and achieve what seems impossible.
Upsets were slightly harder to come by in 2025, but that doesn’t mean they’re disappearing. It just means you need to be more selective.
For 2026, the data and the matchups point toward a handful of high-probability upset spots where seeding doesn’t tell the full story.
VCU is exactly the type of team that thrives in March: experienced, physical, and disruptive on defense. They’ve been one of the hottest teams entering the tournament, and their ability to pressure the ball creates real problems for teams that rely on half-court execution.
North Carolina, meanwhile, comes in with clear question marks—particularly with reduced offensive efficiency late in the season. In a single-elimination setting, that’s a dangerous combination.
If VCU controls tempo and forces turnovers early, this is one of the most realistic 11-over-6 upsets on the board.
This is your classic 12 vs. 5 matchup but with a modern twist.
High Point generates a huge portion of its offense from turnovers, ranking among the best teams in the country at turning mistakes into points. That creates volatility, and volatility is exactly what underdogs need.
Wisconsin is disciplined, but if this game speeds up even slightly, it favors High Point. One or two stretches of sloppy play could be enough to flip the result.
BYU has one of the widest ranges of outcomes in the tournament. When their offense is clicking, they can beat almost anyone but inconsistency has been a recurring issue.
Texas, despite an uneven finish to the season, has the scoring ability to keep pace and exploit defensive gaps. This matchup likely turns into a shot-making contest, and that introduces far more variance than a typical 6 vs. 11 game.
If BYU goes cold for even a short stretch, Texas is well-positioned to capitalize.
This is a matchup of contrasting styles and that’s where upsets are born.
McNeese thrives on defensive pressure and forcing mistakes, while Vanderbilt prefers a more controlled offensive approach. If McNeese can disrupt rhythm early and create extra possessions, they can neutralize the talent gap.
This isn’t the safest upset pick but it’s one of the more structurally sound ones.
This is the type of pick that gains momentum quickly especially with injury concerns and recent form narratives.
But there’s a risk of overcorrecting here.
Louisville’s offensive firepower and perimeter shooting give them a higher ceiling than most teams in this range. Even if they’re not at full strength, they have multiple ways to score and can pull away quickly if they find rhythm.
South Florida is a solid team but this feels like a spot where the public may be overvaluing recent trends and undervaluing overall talent.
The first round gets all the attention, but the real edge often shows up in the Round of 32. By this point, the market has already adjusted to first-round results—creating opportunities where strong lower seeds are undervalued against vulnerable favorites.
Here are a few second-round upset spots to watch in March Madness 2026:
If Iowa makes it through the first round, this becomes one of the most interesting matchups on the board.
Florida is a strong No. 1 seed, but they’re not invincible—and Iowa’s offensive firepower gives them a real chance in a high-scoring game. The Hawkeyes can stretch the floor and force Florida into a pace they may not be comfortable with.
In a game where possessions increase and variance rises, Iowa has the profile of a team that can pull off a major shock.
This is a classic clash of styles and exactly the kind of matchup that produces second-round upsets.
Saint Mary’s plays at a slow, deliberate pace, limiting possessions and increasing the likelihood of a close game late. Houston, while elite defensively, can be dragged into uncomfortable half-court battles where every possession matters.
If Saint Mary’s controls tempo and keeps this game in the 60s, the margin for error shrinks dramatically for the favorite.
If VCU advances past the first round, don’t expect them to slow down.
Their defensive pressure and ability to create turnovers can disrupt even the most talented teams. Arizona has the higher ceiling, but they’ve shown vulnerability against teams that force them out of rhythm.
This is the type of matchup where momentum carries over and if VCU builds early confidence, they have the tools to make another statement.
Michigan may be one of the more vulnerable top seeds in the tournament, particularly if turnover issues resurface.
Texas, if they get here, will likely have already proven they can score against quality opposition. That confidence, combined with Michigan’s occasional inconsistency, opens the door for an upset.
This isn’t about Texas being the better team. It’s about the right matchup at the right time.
Saint Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, which is exactly what creates upset potential in March. Fewer possessions mean more variance and more chances for a disciplined underdog to stay within striking distance.
They’re experienced, well-coached, and comfortable in close games. That’s a dangerous combination in the tournament’s second weekend.
Santa Clara has quietly built a profile that translates well to tournament play: efficient offense, strong shooting, and the ability to compete with high-level opponents.
They won’t overwhelm teams physically, but they don’t beat themselves and that’s often enough to outlast more talented but inconsistent opponents.
If you’re looking for a team that could benefit from bracket chaos, Iowa fits the mold.
They’re positioned in a region where the top seed looks more vulnerable than usual, and their offensive firepower gives them the ability to exploit that. If things break their way early, they could ride momentum into a deeper run.
By the time we reach the Elite Eight and Final Four, the idea of an “upset” looks very different. At this stage, every team is good, but that doesn’t mean the top seeds are safe.
In fact, this is often where overvalued favorites collide with battle-tested teams that are peaking at the right time.
Here are the most realistic late-round upset scenarios for March Madness 2026:
Duke will likely enter the second weekend as one of the most popular championship picks but that popularity can inflate expectations.
Kansas, on the other hand, has the kind of roster built for deep runs: experienced guards, shot creators, and players who can execute in late-game situations. If this matchup materializes, Kansas has the offensive versatility to exploit any gaps, especially if Duke’s backcourt depth becomes an issue.
This is less about a massive mismatch and more about trusting the team with fewer weaknesses under pressure.
Michigan has the profile of a dominant No. 1 seed but also one with subtle vulnerabilities, particularly when forced into faster-paced, high-scoring games.
Arizona thrives in that environment.
If Arizona can speed the game up and turn it into a transition-heavy contest, they can pull Michigan out of its comfort zone. Over the course of 40 minutes, that shift in tempo can be enough to flip the result.
This is a classic case of a dangerous 4-seed with the right matchup.
At this stage, seeding becomes almost irrelevant and this is a perfect example.
Houston’s defensive identity travels. They don’t rely on shooting variance or hot streaks, which makes them incredibly dangerous in high-pressure games. Florida may have the higher ceiling offensively, but if Houston controls pace and turns this into a grind, they can neutralize that advantage.
This wouldn’t feel like a shock but based on seeding alone, it qualifies as one.
UConn has already proven in recent years that they know how to navigate March better than almost anyone.
Even if they enter as a lower seed, their tournament experience, coaching, and ability to adjust mid-game give them a real edge in late-round matchups.
Purdue, while dominant, has shown in past tournaments that physical, well-coached teams can disrupt their rhythm. If UConn controls the interior and limits second-chance opportunities, they can absolutely take this game.
March Madness upsets are what make the NCAA Tournament one of the most exciting events in sports. While some higher seeds will inevitably survive, history tells us that chaos is coming. Whether you're betting, filling out a bracket, or just watching for fun, keep an eye on these potential upsets as they just might define the 2026 tournament.
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