EXPECTED VALUE CALCULATOR

1. What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected value, also known as EV, is the estimated profit a bettor should make from a bet given the sportsbook's odds. Positive EV bets (+EV bets) indicate the sportsbook has undervalued their odds, and the bettor will likely profit from these over time. Negative EV bets suggest the opposite.

Knowing the expected value of bets can play a key part in an effective betting strategy. Though a positive EV does not guarantee a profit every time, if a bettor consistently wagers on +EV bets in the long term, there is a strong probability that their net profit will be positive over time (wins will outweigh losses).

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What Our Experts Say

"Expected value isn’t about predicting the outcome of a single bet - it’s about stacking probabilities in your favour over time. Understanding this concept is one of the first steps to transitioning from casual betting to a sharper, more strategic approach."

- Chris Allen, Sports & Matched Betting Expert at ProfitDuel

2. Expected Value Betting Example

Let's use an example using a random variable. You're going to place CA$100 on a coin toss. The probability of hitting either heads or tails is 50%. Your EV would be $0 as there's an equal probability you will both win and lose. The true odds would be +100 (2 in decimal odds) for both sides.

Now let's say a sportsbook offers you odds of +110 for the coin to land on heads. You know the true probability of the coin landing on heads is 50% (+100+), but the sportsbook has undervalued the odds, leaving an opportunity for you to profit.

If you bet CA$100 on heads to land with these new odds, statistically, the expectation is that you will profit $5. This is your expected value. Make 100 bets over a period of time with this EV, and your expected value over this period would be $500.

This concept of finding small opportunities in sportsbook odds and taking advantage of them in the long term is the basic idea behind EV betting. Now let's look at how we would calculate EV in real-life sports betting scenarios using the expected value calculator.

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What The Experts Say

"Most fan bases of Canadian sports teams overestimate their teams and bet with their hearts instead of their heads. This creates a bias in the market, leading to overbetting on favourites and influencing betting trends. Sportsbooks quickly identify these trends and adjust the odds to shift the value to the other side. This gives sharp bettors an edge in finding where the real value is."

- LiveScore Canada

3. What is an Expected Value Calculator?

An expected value calculator is a tool that calculates the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose on a bet over time. It uses the true win probability, sportsbook odds, and stake to determine if a bet has positive or negative expected value.

• Positive EV means the bet is statistically profitable in the long run.
• Negative EV suggests long-term losses if repeated.
• True win probability should be based on fair (no-vig) odds.
• Input formats typically include decimal or American odds (both commonly found at Canadian sportsbooks).
• Helps bettors make data-driven, long-term profitable decisions.

By allowing bettors to rapidly identify potentially profitable bets, an expected value calculator helps bettors avoid short-term losses from overpriced odds, and plan for long-term profitability by mapping out future +EV bets.

This longer term focus separates EV betting from more typically short-term betting activities like parlay betting and round robin parlay betting.

Understanding Your EV Result

4. How to Use an Expected Value Calculator

To calculate the expected value of a bet using an expected value calculator, follow these four simple steps:

1. Enter Wager: This is the amount you plan to wager on the event.
   
   
2. Enter Odds: These should be the odds you see for your intended selection. Choose from American odds or decimal odds, depending on which format your sportsbook uses.
   
   
3. Enter Win Probability: This is the true probability of your selection winning. It can be calculated using a no-vig calculator, which removes the sportsbook's profit margins to provide a true win percentage.
   
   
4. View Expected Value: The calculator will automatically calculate the expected value of this bet. If it's a positive figure, this is a +EV bet, if a negative figure, a -EV bet.
   
   

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   What The Experts Say

   "Many people think sports betting is all about luck. While luck can play a role, there’s a lot more to it. Bookmakers set the odds based on a mathematical understanding of the likely outcomes of an event. If you want to consistently make money, you need to be more accurate than the bookmakers in calculating the real odds."

   - Baron Mag

   
   
   

EV Calculator Input Cheat Sheet

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What Our Experts Say

"Many bettors rely on instinct, but using an EV calculator helps strip emotion out of the process. When you bet based on true win probabilities, you’re not guessing, you’re making informed, data-driven decisions designed to profit long-term."

- Casey Halpern, Sports Betting Expert at ProfitDuel

Tip: Don't get the true win probability mixed up with the implied probability. The implied probability is the probability assigned by the sportsbooks that is purposely inflated to ensure a profit margin (found using an implied probability calculator).

5. How to Calculate Expected Value Using a Formula

It's worth knowing that our EV calculator does all of this for you automatically, so there's no real need to know how to work it out for yourself. However, for the betting nerds among us, it can make for interesting reading.

An expected value calculator works by using a mathematical formula to estimate the likelihood of a bet resulting in a profit or a loss, and by how much, with each bet viewed as a random variable in the calculation.

Whilst you can use different calculations to analyze EV over time (such as standard deviation and probability distribution), calculating expected value involves a pretty simple formula.

You can calculate expected value using the following formula: (winning probability) x (profit if win) - (losing probability) x (stake). In this formula, 'winning probability' and ‘losing probability’ mean the true probabilities of either outcome of the event, which can be calculated using a no-vig 'fair odds' calculator.

6. 6 Tips to Increase Profits EV Betting

By now you'll know how expected value works in sports betting and how to use an EV calculator. But if you're keen to put your EV betting knowledge into practice, use these five tips to maximize your potential earnings:

1. Manage Your Bankroll: Managing your bankroll (the total cash you wish to place across all bets at any one time) is crucial to smart EV betting. Don't blow your entire budget on one event. Start small and gradually build your bankroll as your profits accumulate.
   
   
2. Line Shop: Line shopping involves checking multiple sportsbooks to ensure you're getting the best odds for an event. Line shopping and monitoring line movement (changes in odds) before wagering gives you the best chance of finding +EV opportunities.
   
   
3. Diversify Your Markets: Place bets in a combination of leagues and sports, and across both European and international markets . This can help you spread risk and identify less popular markets that sportsbooks pay less attention to (and therefore tend to offer more profitable EV bets on).
   
   
4. Use Additional Calculators: Using an EV calculator is a game-changer. But combining this with tools like a no-vig calculator (to calculate win probabilities), a hold calculator (to work out sportsbook profit margins), a kelly calculator (to help you find the optimal stake) and a poisson distribution calculator (to help you perfect prop bets) can help refine your EV betting process further.
   
   
   
   
5. Track Your Profits: EV betting is about long-term profits rather than short-term wins. Track your profits (and losses) accurately to analyze your long-term performance and improve your strategy. For accurate tracking and minimum effort, use a dedicated Profit Tracker.
   
   
6. Combine With Other Betting Methods: EV betting can prove profitable in the long term, but consider using other betting methods to boost your short-term earnings too. Methods like matched betting (turning bonus bet promos into cash) and arbitrage betting (betting on every outcome of an event to guarantee a profit) can earn bettors major profits each month.

7. Get Early Access to Smart Betting Tools in Canada

At ProfitDuel we specialize in helping our members across the US and Europe (who range from total beginners to experienced bettors) bank monthly profits. Our software, strategies and support focus on achieving the expected outcomes - and we're about to launch in Canada.

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Sign up now for early access to ProfitDuel Canada, and join 1m+ people making money from matched betting across the globe.

FAQs on the Expected Value Calculator

What does an expected value calculator do in betting?
An expected value calculator shows the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose on a bet based on odds, stake, and true win probability.

How do I know if a bet has positive expected value?
A bet has positive expected value (+EV) if the calculated EV is greater than zero, meaning it’s statistically profitable in the long term.

Is expected value the same as profit?
No, expected value is an average projection over many bets, not guaranteed profit from a single wager. You can lose a +EV bet short-term.

Can expected value betting really make money over time?
Yes, if applied consistently with accurate win probability estimates and proper bankroll management, EV betting can be profitable long-term.

What’s the difference between implied probability and true probability?
Implied probability is based on sportsbook odds (with built-in margin), while true probability reflects the actual likelihood of an outcome and is used to calculate EV.

Do expected value calculators work with parlay bets?
Most EV calculators are designed for single bets, but you can break down parlays into components or use specialized tools for multi-leg bet EV.

Can you use expected value for casino games or only sports betting?
Expected value applies to any form of betting, including casino games, though true probabilities in casinos are often fixed and harder to exploit.

What’s a good win probability source for calculating EV?
Use no-vig calculators or advanced models, like ELO ratings or betting markets consensus, to estimate true win probability more accurately.

Is expected value the only factor in smart betting?
No, other factors like variance, staking strategy, bankroll size, and discipline also play key roles in long-term success.

How often should I use an expected value calculator?
Use it before placing any bet where you want to assess profitability, especially when line shopping or evaluating unfamiliar markets.