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1. What is an Implied Probability Calculator?
An implied probability calculator converts betting odds into a percentage that shows how likely an outcome is to happen, based on the odds given. It helps bettors understand the sportsbook’s view of an event’s likelihood and compare values across different sportsbooks.
- Translates American, decimal, and fractional odds into easy-to-read percentages.
- Clarifies the sportsbook’s implied chance of an outcome.
- Helps bettors spot value or overpriced lines.
- Saves time vs. manual formula calculations.
- A useful tool for beginners and experienced bettors alike
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What The Experts Say
"Probability itself is a mathematical concept that can be used to better interpret odds...bookmakers hire mathematicians to develop algorithms which produce odds.
...Through that algorithm, the bookmaker implies what they think the probability is of a win, hence, we get implied probability. "
2. How to Use an Implied Probability Calculator
Using an implied probability is simple. It involves two steps:
- Input the Odds You Wish to Convert: If they include a + or - (such as +110) they're American odds. If they're displayed as a decimal (such as 2.1) they're decimal odds. If they're displayed as a fraction (such as 11/10) they're fractional odds. At Canadian sportsbooks, you'll mostly find odds displayed in either American or decimal format.
- View Your Probability Percentage: Our calculator will instantly convert your odds into a percentage. This percentage is the probability that your selection will win (implied by the odds).
Bonus Feature: As well as converting all three main odds types into a percentage, our calculator automatically converts your odds into the equivalent across the other two types, should you want to compare.
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What Our Experts Say
"One of the most underrated uses of an implied probability calculator is identifying when the odds may not align with your own research. If you consistently spot mismatches, you're already thinking like a value bettor, even without realizing it!"
- Chris Allen, Sports & Matched Betting Expert at ProfitDuel
3. Worked Example: Using an Implied Probability Calculator Sports Betting
Let's use an example of how this might work using two teams in the NHL. The Anaheim Ducks are playing the Edmonton Oilers.
You log in to an online sportsbook to check the odds, and see the moneyline odds for the Anaheim Ducks to win are +145 (2.45 in decimal odds) and the odds for the Edmonton Oilers to win are -172 (1.58 in decimal odds).
You type both figures into the implied probability calculator one-by-one. You see that, according to the sportsbook's betting line, the Oilers have a 63.3% chance of winning the game and the Ducks a 40.8% chance of winning the game.
Let's say you think the Ducks have a higher chance of winning than 40.8% and you reckon the sportsbook has undervalued these odds. You now go ahead and place a bet on the Ducks to win.
4. How an Implied Probability Calculator Works: The 4 Formulas
You don't need to read this section to be able to calculate implied probability...our handy calculator does that for you! But if you're curious to know the math behind how to calculate implied probabilities, this section is for you.
In a nutshell, there are four different formulas for calculating implied probability, depending on the odds type you enter.
i) American Odds Underdog (+ symbol)
If American odds start with a plus symbol, this signifies they are positive odds and are the underdogs in the game.
The formula for calculating the implied probability of positive odds = 100/(Positive Odds + 100) x 100.
ii) American Odds Favourite (- symbol)
If American odds start with a minus symbol, this signifies they are negative odds and are the favourites in the game.
The formula for calculating the implied probability of negative odds = Positive Odds/(Positive Odds +100) x 100.
iii) Decimal odds
Also known as European odds, decimal odds are often seen as the easiest to understand on first glance. As such, their implied probability is also pretty easy to calculate.
The formula for calculating the implied probability of decimal odds = (1/Decimal Odds) x 100.
iv) Fractional odds
Often referred to as British odds, fractional odds show the ratio of your stake you will win if your bet wins. I.e. if you bet CA$1 on 11/1 odds and it wins, you win $11.
The formula for calculating the implied probability of fractional odds = Denominator/(Numerator + Denominator) x 100.
Odds Types and Their Implied Probability Formulas
| Odds Type | Example Odds | Implied Probability Formula | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Underdog | +190 | 100 / (Positive Odds + 100) × 100 | For underdogs with positive odds (+) |
| American Favourite | -300 | Positive Odds / (Positive Odds + 100) × 100 | For favourites with negative odds (-) |
| Decimal Odds | 2.10 | (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100 | Easy to calculate; common in Europe and some Canadian sportsbooks |
| Fractional Odds | 11/10 | Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator) × 100 | Traditional British odds format |
📊 What The Experts Say
With the recent introduction of single-game betting in Canada, more opportunities are presented to wager on legal sportsbooks. Therefore, tracking and analyzing your bets is key to staying ahead of the game.
5. What are the Benefits of Using an Implied Probability Calculator?
An implied probability calculator can be a helpful tool in a bettor's lineup as it kills several birds with one stone. Here are five of its main benefits:
- Enhanced Decision Making: Implied probability provides clearer insights for informed bets.
- Risk Management: Helps in understanding potential outcomes and managing risks effectively.
- Comparing Odds: Similar to a betting odds calculator, it enables easy comparison of odds across different sportsbooks and markets
- Finding Value Bets: Identifies potentially profitable opportunities often overlooked by others.
- Minimizing Losses: Aids in minimizing losses by helping you make more informed and calculated bets.
Key Benefits
| Benefit | Description |
|---|---|
| Enhanced Decision Making | Provides clearer insights for more informed bets |
| Risk Management | Helps understand potential outcomes and manage risks |
| Comparing Odds | Enables easy comparison across sportsbooks and markets |
| Finding Value Bets | Identifies profitable opportunities often missed by others |
| Minimizing Losses | Aids in reducing losses through more calculated betting |
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What Our Experts Say
"Odds alone don’t always reveal the full story but when converted to implied probability, they can unlock patterns, reveal value, and expose sportsbook biases that casual bettors often miss. It’s a simple tool that builds sharper intuition over time."
- Casey Halpern, Sports Betting Expert at ProfitDuel
6. Are There Any Limitations to Using an Implied Probability Calculator?
Though an implied probability calculator can help streamline betting activity, it does come with some important limitations to note. Five of the most crucial are:
- Skewed Probabilities: Implied probabilities are based on sportsbook odds. These don't always reflect true probabilities and are usually inflated to ensure the sportsbook profits (see the vig calculator and no-vig calculator for how to remove this margin).
- Inaccurate Pricing: Bookmakers may misprice odds, leading to inaccuracies in implied probabilities, especially in a less liquid betting market.
- Odds Often Change: Odds on events can change by the minute, so an implied probability one minute may be different the next.
- Neglect Context: Sportsbooks can sometimes fail to account for external factors in their odds, like player injuries or weather conditions. This can lead to flawed conclusions.
- Profit Not Guaranteed: Even if there's a major favourite in a sports game and an implied probability of 90%+, this won't guarantee returns. In traditional sports betting there are no definites.
7. Don't Leave it to Chance: Take Advantage of Smart Betting Tools in Canada
Though in traditional sports betting there's no such thing as a ‘dead cert’, there is one approach in the betting scene that's recently gained major traction for its ability to lock in a profit, no matter the result.
Matched betting has been available in Europe for some time, and it's been gaining huge popularity in the US over the last five years. Now, ProfitDuel is bringing matched betting to Canada - and you could be one of the first to lock in profits by signing up for early access.
A clever process, matched betting (in a nutshell) involves placing bets to cover every outcome of a game to unlock a sportsbook promo, like a bonus bet, without the risks of traditional gambling. Once this has been unlocked, you repeat the process on another event using your promo to lock in a profitable payout.
Though on paper this process may sound simple, to make consistent profits from it you need powerful odds-matching software, a constantly updating dashboard of promos and personalized instructions to rapidly complete each offer… and that's where we come in.
At ProfitDuel we've helped more than 500,000 of our members make monthly profits matched betting here in the US and in Europe (through our European arm, OddsMonkey) using industry-leading software strategies and support.
Now, we're about to launch ProfitDuel Canada - sign up today for early access, and join 1m+ people making money from matched betting across the globe.
FAQs on the Implied Probability Calculator
What does "implied probability" mean in betting?
Implied probability shows how likely an event is to happen, based on the odds set by a sportsbook. It converts those odds into a percentage chance.
Why should I convert odds to implied probability?
Converting odds to implied probability helps you understand what the sportsbook believes the chances are.
How accurate is an implied probability calculator?
The math is accurate, but the implied probabilities reflect the sportsbook’s view, not the true chances of an event happening.
Can I use this calculator for all odds formats?
Yes, you can use it for American (+/-), decimal, and fractional odds. It also automatically shows conversions between formats.
How is implied probability different from actual probability?
Implied probability is based on betting odds, which include sportsbook margins. Actual probability would reflect the real likelihood, which is often unknown.
What’s a good implied probability for value betting?
A good value bet is when your own estimated probability is higher than the implied probability shown by the odds, meaning the odds may be undervalued.
Can I use implied probability in parlay bets?
Yes, but you'll need to calculate the implied probability of each leg, then multiply the probabilities to get an idea of the total chance.
Do sportsbooks include margin in implied probabilities?
Yes. Odds are padded with margin (the "vig"), so total implied probabilities often add up to more than 100%.
Is implied probability useful for beginners?
Absolutely. It helps new bettors understand what odds mean and can reduce poor betting decisions based on misinterpreted odds.
How do I know if odds offer good value?
Use the implied probability to compare with your own judgment. If you think a team has a 60% chance but the odds suggest 40%, there may be value.
What is ProfitDuel?
ProfitDuel is the USA’s leading smart betting platform, and we're about to launch in Canada. Our software is designed to help users profit safely using proven risk-reduced strategies like matched betting, arbitrage betting and expected value (EV) betting.
We provide real-time betting tools and betting calculators, step-by-step guides, and expert support to help beginners and experienced users alike generate consistent, low-risk profits from online sportsbooks and online casinos.
Already trusted by more than 500,000 users across the USA and Europe, at ProfitDuel we're committed to helping our members make money online consistently, easily and with full transparency.