What is EV Betting? Simple Explanation + Examples

Quick Answer: EV (Expected Value) betting is a sports betting strategy that identifies wagers where the true probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by sportsbook odds. These bets are known as positive expected value (+EV) bets and may generate profit over the long term when placed consistently. Unlike matched betting, EV betting involves risk and relies on finding mispriced odds. 

Since the United States made major changes to sports betting rules in 2018, the industry has grown at a rapid rate. With that came a huge wave of US sports bettors looking for more disciplined and smarter ways to profit from betting.

Along with Matched Betting and Arbitrage Betting, more people are turning to expected value (EV) betting as a new betting concept. Understanding EV and how to find value bets, takes bettors away from a guessing game and helps them make calculated betting decisions.

1. What is Expected Value (EV) Betting?

Expected Value (EV), often also referred to as ‘Value Betting’ calculates the average result you might expect from a bet if you were to place it multiple times.

In simple terms, it requires placing wagers that are more likely to win than the odds suggest at the sportsbooks.

A bet with positive EV (+EV) suggests that, over time, you should make profits if you keep placing similar bets. Whereas a negative EV (-EV) bets are likely to lose you money in the long run.

Fair odds accurately indicate how likely a bet is to win. If a sportsbook offered fair odds, it wouldn’t be long before they went out of business as they would have no advantage (house edge).

For example, let’s say you bet on the flip of a 1 cent coin. If the coin lands on heads, you win $2 and if it doesn’t, you lose $1. This type of bet should be based on a 50/50 outcome (odds of +100) but this bet is skewed in your favor which makes it a positive EV bet.

So the key to EV betting is finding odds offered by the sportsbooks that don’t accurately reflect the actual probability of an outcome.

2. How Does EV Betting Work?

EV betting works by comparing two elements:

• The implied probability from the bookmakers odds
• Your own estimate of the true probability of the outcome

Implied Probability - converts sportsbooks betting odds into a percentage showing the likely outcome predicted by a sportsbook.

You can use the ProfitDuel Implied Probability Calculator to do the math for you.

If your estimated probability is higher than the bookmakers implied probability, you could well have a value bet.

Step-by-Step Example

Let’s say an online sportsbook is offering odds of +150 for the Detroit Lions to beat the New England Patriots in an upcoming NFL game. 

The Odds of +150 suggest the bookmaker believes the Lions only have a 40% chance of winning the game. However, you have done your research and think the Lions chance of winning is actually 50%.

EV Calculation based on a $100 bet:

• If the Lions win your returns are $150
• If the Lions lose, you’ll be $100 down.

EV Formula = (probability of winning x profit) - (probability of losing x loss).

Based on the formula, this what the calculation of your bet would look like if the Detroit Lions win:

• EV = (0.50 x $150) - (0.50 x $100)
• EV = 75 - 50 = +$25 profit

This is deemed as a positive EV bet. Placing bets like this should result in a profit over time.

Find out a little more in the How Does EV Betting Work? article.

3. How Much Can I Make EV Betting?

Firstly, you need to stay realistic and understand that EV betting is not a fast track route to raking in money.

EV betting is not like matched betting where you are able to lock in profits. As with normal betting, EV betting isn’t risk-free and you won’t always win. However, it can be considered as more investing than gambling.

There are no set figures when it comes to how much money you can make when EV betting in the US. There’s various factors that need to be taken into account:

• Bankroll: The more money you have available, the more +EV bets you can place to benefit from value betting opportunities. Some bettors use stakes as a percentage of their bankroll such as 1-2%.
• Consistency: Be prepared to place a large number of bets as EV betting is a long term strategy.
• Edge Difference: The higher the edge, the bigger your potential returns.
• Time Available: for EV betting to have an impact, you’ll need to have spare time to identify and place plenty of bets.

Typical Returns

As mentioned before, it’s almost impossible to put a figure on exact returns because of the various factors. However, with a committed effort, a bettor might achieve a ROI (return on investment) of 2% to 5%.

For example:

• If you wagered $10,000 with a 5% ROI, your profit would be $500.

Variance is Real

Even though you’re placing positive EV bets, they won’t all win. In fact, you might encounter a losing streak. Don’t panic, that’s normal and EV betting is a long term strategy.

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What Our Experts Say

"One of the biggest mistakes new EV bettors make is judging the quality of a bet by its outcome. A losing wager can still be a great decision if the odds were in your favor. Long-term profitability comes from consistently finding value, not from winning every week."

- Monika Kazimierczak, Customer Success Expert at ProfitDuel

4. How To Get Started EV Betting

There’s a bit of leg work to get yourself in a position to start EV betting but once that’s done, the rest is plain sailing thanks to the ProfitDuel tools.

1. Learn how odds work

You need to understand:

• American Odds (-110, +150 etc)
• Implied probability
• How sportsbook build lines

2. Use multiple sportsbooks

This is key in finding the best odds as the odds can differ between sportsbooks. It helps to:

• Compare odds
• Find the best line
• Increase the EV bet opportunities

3. Develop or follow a model

You need to come up with a way to estimate true probability. This can just be basic analysis to get started. This sort of information can come from:

• Power rankings
• Track market movements
• Historical data
• Statistical models

4. Track your bets

Keep basic details of:

• Type of bet
• Odds used
• Stakes placed
• The results

Keeping records like this can help to track your ROI, pick up on errors and stay disciplined. on a range of factors, including how much time you dedicate and how large of an initial bankroll you start with.

IMPORTANT - You could waste hours searching for value bets manually and still might not find any miss out on some.

That’s why it’s important to use tools to find the best EV bets and save yourself hours of work.

ProfitDuel has over 15 years experience in helping customers make profits from EV betting. With tools such as our industry leading Boost Matcher Pro and Expected Value Calculator, EV betting opportunities have never been better.

5. Which Sports Can I Value Bet On?

Value betting has never been more popular or easier and is a reliable way to make money from sports betting. It’s all about spotting betting lines where a sportsbook has undervalued the expectation of an event happening. This means bettors cna consistently place value bets with a positive expected return.

The question is, can you value bet on any sports or are some sports better suited to value betting than others?

Football Value Betting

• When it comes to value betting, football is up there with the most profitable and popular sports to bet on. In part, this is due to the amount of data available which provides valuable statistics for value bettors. Heavily analyzed sports such as football can often lead to errors in betting odds and value betting opportunities.

• In addition to this, there are a huge amount of games played across the NFL and college football seasons meaning there are plenty of betting markets and value betting opportunities for bettors to benefit from.

• Casual bettors will often place bets on favored players and teams which can create a disproportionate bias. Hype placed bets can cause sportsbooks to follow the betting trends and adjust odds accordingly, rather than setting odds on the true probability of an outcome.

• Again, this can result in undervalued odds meaning value bettors can identify value betting opportunities.

Basketball Value Betting

• Basketball is a potential goldmine for value betting due to the volume of games played in the NBA and colleges. Due to the fast pace and high totals, odds can swing very quickly causing odds inefficiencies that suit EV betting down to the ground.

• Because there’s plenty of star players in basketball, there’s occasions where sportsbooks will misprice prop bets such as rebounds, assists or total points. Basketball prop bets tend to be player performance related rather than a simple team win or loss.

• Betting odds are constantly changing in basketball as different variables emerge such as res days and injuries. This can create regular value betting opportunities.

Baseball Value Bets

• The Major League Baseball (MLB) season encompasses almost 2,500 league games and has the longest season of all professional sports in North America. This provides a large scale of opportunities to place value bets.

• Baseball is inherently unpredictable and the favored teams don’t always win and underdogs often exceed expectations. This means astute bettors can find opportunities to place wagers on undervalued players or teams at greater odds.

Soccer Value Betting

• Betting on soccer is massive thanks to a vast global reach and easy access to watch soccer matches. Soccer has become increasingly popular in the US meaning there are more soccer betting markets than ever before. The addition of the FIFA World Cup 2026 being hosted by Canada, Mexico and the US can only lead to massive betting opportunities.

• Soccer can be unpredictable and rarely has high score outcomes. The uncertainty in soccer can be advantageous for value bettors as recreational bettors tend to favor safe bets. This can lead to inflated odds on underdogs and drawn games.

Hockey Value Bets

• The NHL is a firm favorite in professional sports meaning the sportsbooks are keen to offer plenty of betting markets. This can lead to casual bettors backing star players and elite teams.

• For example, a high-profile team could have lower odds due to their reputation and support. This can often lead to their opponents being undervalued and present EV betting chances.

Horse Racing Value Betting

• The dynamic odds system used in horse racing makes it ideal for value betting. Horse racing odds are largely swayed by bettors rather than the sportsbooks. This leaves the markets open to be influenced by sentiment rather than data which can lead to skewed odds and value betting opportunities.

• The range of betting markets in horse racing is bigger than ever. Bettors can wager on wins, places, extra places etc. These options provide more opportunities for smart bettors to find undervalued bets.

6. Is EV Betting Legal In America?

Yes, EV betting is completely legal in the US provided sports betting is legal in your state.

In 2018, the US Supreme Court changed the law to allow individual states to introduce legislation to permit sports betting if they wanted to. This has seen the sports betting industry evolve to over 30 US states where people can bet.

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What The Data Says

"Americans legally wagered $166.94 billion on sports in 2025, generating a record $16.96 billion in sportsbook revenue. The continued growth of the market highlights why more bettors are looking for data-driven approaches, such as identifying value and expected value opportunities, rather than relying purely on instinct."

- American Gaming Association (reported by ESPN)

Whilst each state has its own legislation, the concept is the same: placing wagers using licensed sportsbooks is legal.

Important distinction - EV betting isn’t a special form of betting. It’s just sports betting using a different strategy. The sportsbooks aren't keen on EV betting but it doesn’t make it illegal.

7. EV Betting Strategies

Expected Value (EV) is a yardstick used to measure how likely a bet is to succeed. By using EV betting strategies, over time you can take advantage of odds to make profits from (positive) +EV bets.

So, what EV betting strategies can you use to enhance your profit making opportunities?

Find the Most Accurate Lines

There will almost always be differences in betting lines between sportsbooks. They do set their own but somebody has to set the benchmark first.

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What The Data Says

"Research analysing 3,681 MLB games across four sportsbooks found that betting market forecasts were ‘mostly reliable’, but also identified betting strategies that would have generated significant profits. The finding supports the core EV betting principle that market inefficiencies can still exist despite generally efficient odds."

- American University / Management Science Research

The ‘market makers’ are usually then followed by other sportsbooks.

The market makers tend to offer the most reliable odds, allowing you to see the benchmark odds. From here, you can then compare odds across other sportsbooks to find undervalued or inflated odds.

For example, if one sportsbook offers odds of +180 but another offers odds of +200, the greater value lies with the higher odds. Over time, placing bets where the odds are more favorable will maixmize your profit potential.

Don’t Ignore Arbitrage Betting Chances

Arbitrage betting is very closely linked to EV betting and is a strategy to lock in profits irrespective of the outcome of the bet. To take advantage of this strategy, you need to place opposing bets (at separate sportsbooks) on the same event.

For example, there’s an upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees and you find the following bets on offer:

• Sportsbook A: Red Sox (+115) Vs. Yankees (-135)
• Sportsbook B: Red Sox (-105) Vs. Yankees (+115)

By betting proportionally on both teams to win, you remove the risk element and can bank a profit.

Take Advantage of Offers

The majority of sportsbooks offer promotions such as free bets and odds boosts to attract new customers and keep existing customers engaged. The logic behind these types of offers is to encourage customers to spend money betting. However, when using different matched betting strategies, these offers can give bettors a good edge.

Free bets allow you to remove the risk of losing your own money. You can also use free bets to wager on high EV opportunities.

Important: Whilst you can use sportsbook promotions for EV betting, you can earn more consistent profits with matched betting techniques.

Track the CLV (Closing Line Value)

The CLV is an important metric in sports betting which is utilised to assess the accuracy of predictions and can indicate whether your bets consistently show positive value (+EV).

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What Our Experts Say

"Many bettors focus exclusively on profit and loss, but Closing Line Value is often the better performance indicator. If you're regularly beating the closing price, you're likely identifying value correctly, even during periods when short-term results don't reflect it."

- Chris Allen, Sports & Matched Betting Expert at ProfitDuel

The closing line (also referred to as a starting price) is the final odds set by sportsbooks right before an event starts. The final odds are seen as the most accurate indication of true probabilities.

CLV reflects the difference between the odds when you placed your bets and the closing odds of an event. If you can better the closing line on a consistent basis, it’s likely your betting decisions are profitable.

It’s also worth analyzing your previous bets to identify successful trends and patterns.

Utilise Tools to Assist You

There are various tools available to help bettors identify positive EV bets. However, the number one tool in the US is the Boost Matcher Pro.

The Boost Matcher Pro is super intelligent and scans all the betting markets in your state instantly. It then displays all the available betting opportunities in rank order. It doesn’t stop there either; it also tells you how much profit you should expect when you place the bet.

This tool saves you hours of wasted time trawling through sportsbooks to identify value bets. It also does all the calculations for you.

8. Do I Need any Betting Experience to Start EV Betting?

No, EV betting is possible for even the least experienced bettor provided sports betting is accessible in the state where you live. One thing to know is that you’ll need a bit of spare cash to get going with EV betting (minimum of $50).

Previously, EV betting was reserved for sports bettors with years of experience, but today the range of beginner guides, walkthrough videos and customer support that is available has made making consistent profit from matched betting each month easier than ever before.

9. Do I Need a Separate Bank Account for EV Betting?

ou don't need a separate bank account to start EV betting, you can deposit and withdraw from sportsbooks/EV betting platforms using your main bank account.

However, it’s not a bad idea if you decide to set up a new bank account just for matched betting. Doing this might make it easier to keep track of your money and keep your day-to-day account clear of sportsbook deposit transactions.

10. Do I Need to be Good at Math to do EV Betting?

NO! Although basic math skills can help you along the way, you don't need to be great at math to do EV Bets.

That's where we come in. The wide range of tools, software and calculators now available to beginners means all you need to do to begin building profits is follow a few simple instructions and have a small pot of cash to get you started (as little as $50).

11. What Tools are Available for EV Betting as a Beginner?

It is possible to find +EV bets manually but this tends to be very time consuming. That’s why ProfitDuel provides a range of useful tools to make things a lot easier.

These tools help save time and provide accuracy to make sure you can identify profitable opportunities consistently.

Whilst we do have plenty of tools available, there’s three that are particularly beneficial for EV betting:

1. Expected Value Calculator

This calculator will instantly let you know the probability of a bet. You need to input the stake amount, odds and win probability and it will then calculate the expected profit.

2. Casino EV Calculator

This tool is specific to players doing casino promotions such as slot bonuses or free spins. It takes into account the return to player (RTP) percentage and any wagering requirements to produce an EV calculation.

It provides a great indicator of whether an offer is worth doing.

3. Boost Matcher Pro

This tool is a powerful resource for value bettors, especially those wagering in the U.S. Boost Matcher Pro continuously scans thousands of sportsbook lines in real time to uncover the strongest +EV opportunities available in your state.

It automatically ranks these bets, provides instant profit projections, and removes the hassle of manually comparing odds. Its integrated Profit Tracker also delivers precise, transparent record‑keeping for every wager.

These tools transform EV betting by simplifying every step, reducing costly mistakes, and boosting long‑term profitability. They’ve become indispensable for anyone committed to serious value betting.

12. EV Betting vs Matched Betting vs Arbitrage Betting

While EV betting, matched betting, and arbitrage betting all aim to generate profit from sports betting, they use very different methods and carry different levels of risk. Understanding the differences can help you choose the strategy that best matches your goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.

EV Betting (Expected Value Betting)

EV betting focuses on identifying situations where a sportsbook's odds are higher than the true probability of an outcome occurring.

For example, if you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning but the sportsbook's odds imply only a 40% chance, the wager may have positive expected value (+EV).

Key characteristics:

• Relies on probability and mathematical edge
• Requires accurate odds analysis and probability estimation
• Can be profitable over the long term
• Subject to variance and losing streaks
• Often uses line shopping, statistical models, and Closing Line Value (CLV)

Best for: Bettors seeking long-term growth through data-driven decision-making.

Matched Betting

Matched betting is a strategy that uses sportsbook promotions to generate profit while minimizing risk.

The bettor places a qualifying bet with a sportsbook and then places an opposing wager on the same event to cover all possible outcomes. This allows the value of bonuses, bonus bets, and promotional offers to be converted into cash profit.

Key characteristics:

• Uses sportsbook promotions and bonuses
• Profit is typically predictable when executed correctly
• Requires less sports knowledge than EV betting
• Low risk compared to traditional betting
• Can be limited by sportsbook account restrictions over time

Best for: Beginners looking for a structured, low-risk way to profit from sportsbook promotions.

Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting (or "arbing") involves taking advantage of differing odds between sportsbooks to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.

For example, if one sportsbook offers favorable odds on Team A and another offers favorable odds on Team B, a bettor may be able to cover all outcomes and lock in a small profit.

Key characteristics:

• Profit can be guaranteed when calculated correctly
• Requires multiple sportsbook accounts
• Depends on finding pricing discrepancies quickly
• Opportunities can disappear rapidly
• Some sportsbooks may restrict successful arbitrage bettors

Best for: Experienced bettors who can act quickly and have access to multiple sportsbooks.

EV Betting vs Matched Betting vs Arbitrage Betting Comparison

Which Strategy Is Best?

There is no single "best" betting strategy—each serves a different purpose.

• Matched betting is often the best starting point for beginners because it uses promotions to generate relatively predictable profits with minimal risk.
• Arbitrage betting appeals to bettors seeking guaranteed returns from pricing discrepancies between sportsbooks.
• EV betting offers the greatest long-term upside for bettors who are comfortable with variance and want to build a sustainable mathematical edge.

Many experienced bettors eventually combine all three approaches—using matched betting to monetize promotions, arbitrage betting to capture guaranteed opportunities, and EV betting to pursue long-term growth through value-based wagering.

13. What is the Best Platform for EV Betting?

Any reliable EV betting platform will encompass three key elements:

• Powerful Software
• Easy To-Follow Guides
• An Experienced Team

ProfitDuel ticks all the boxes and more. We have over 15 years of experience helping 500,000+ members across the U.S. and Europe earn monthly profits with EV betting (with matched betting in particular).

With a suite of ultra-powerful matched betting, arbitrage betting and EV betting tools, alongside a range of walkthrough guides - from beginner through advanced - as well as an experienced team of experts on hand to offer support, we offer the most complete smart betting platform on the market today.

The best part? You can access it all with a ProfitDuel trial. Claim your offer below for full access to ProfitDuel Premium software, strategies and support and get started earning.

14. Frequently Asked Questions About EV Betting

Is EV betting the same as value betting?

Yes. EV betting and value betting are generally used interchangeably. Both involve identifying situations where the true probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the sportsbook's odds.

Can you make money from EV betting without winning most of your bets?

Yes. Profitability comes from consistently backing positive EV opportunities rather than maintaining a high win rate. Many successful value bettors lose a significant percentage of their bets but still generate long-term profits because the odds they take offer positive expected returns.

How long does it take for EV betting to become profitable?

EV betting should be viewed as a long-term strategy rather than a short-term income source. Results are typically measured over hundreds of bets, as short-term variance can mask whether your betting decisions are genuinely profitable.

What is the biggest mistake beginners make with EV betting?

Many beginners focus on individual results instead of the quality of their decisions. A losing bet can still be a good EV bet if the odds represented value when the wager was placed.

Do sportsbooks limit successful EV bettors?

Some sportsbooks may restrict or limit accounts that consistently identify pricing errors, boosted odds, or other value opportunities. Policies vary between operators, but having access to multiple sportsbooks can help maintain access to value bets.

Is EV betting better than traditional sports betting?

EV betting is generally considered a more disciplined approach because decisions are based on probability and pricing rather than intuition, loyalty to teams, or gut feelings. However, it still carries risk and does not guarantee profits.

How many sportsbooks should I use for EV betting?

Using multiple sportsbooks is recommended because odds can vary significantly between operators. The more sportsbooks you compare, the greater your chances of finding positive EV opportunities.

What is a good EV percentage for a bet?

There is no universal target, but many value bettors focus on opportunities with a small but measurable edge. Consistently finding modest positive EV bets is often more sustainable than chasing rare opportunities with extremely high theoretical value.

Can EV betting work with player props?

Yes. Many experienced bettors use EV betting on player props because these markets can be slower to adjust to new information such as injuries, lineup changes, or performance trends. This can occasionally create pricing inefficiencies.

Is EV betting legal in every US state?

EV betting itself is legal wherever regulated sports betting is legal. Since EV betting is simply a betting strategy rather than a separate gambling activity, the legality depends on your state's sports betting laws.

Why is Closing Line Value (CLV) important?

CLV measures whether the odds you took were better than the final market odds before the event started. Consistently beating the closing line is widely regarded as one of the strongest indicators that you're identifying genuine value.

Can EV betting be automated?

Many bettors use software tools to scan sportsbooks, compare odds, calculate expected value, and identify opportunities in real time. These tools can dramatically reduce the time required to find profitable bets manually.

15. What is ProfitDuel?

EV betting focuses on finding mispriced odds that offer long-term profit potential. ProfitDuel’s real-time EV software helps you identify high-value bets instantly, giving you a mathematical edge over the market and boosting your long-term returns.

Trusted by over 500,000 users across the USA and UK, ProfitDuel is the smart betting toolkit built to help you maximize profit and minimize risk. We equip our users with real-time data, cutting-edge tools and expert support to help our top members make consistent monthly profits through strategy, not luck.

Centred around proven techniques like matched betting, arbitrage betting, and value betting (EV betting), our betting calculators, betting tools and live market data make it easy to spot hidden edges and turn them into profit.

From converting sportsbook promos and casino bonuses into cash to maximizing your long-term winnings using EV software, we’ve got you covered.

Whether you’re an experienced bettor sharpening your edge or a beginner looking for a profitable side hustle, ProfitDuel gives you the software, systems and expert support to boost your monthly earnings with confidence. Because the smartest way to bet isn’t gambling — it’s strategy.

Ready to get started? Sign up to your ProfitDuel trial today and we'll give you everything you need to convert your first promo.