NFL Best Bets Week 14 | Lines, Picks, Prop Bets & More

December football has arrived! Which means we’re now officially in the homestretch of the 2025 NFL season.

Here’s how we’re attacking the slate this week. Start your engines...

Can't-Miss NFL Week 14 Promos

Let's take a look at some of the NFL betting promos available this week.

FanDuel's running their standard profit boosts on primetime games, with an option of boosts from you to choose from. DraftKings usually has their stepped-up same-game parlays this week. Don't forget to check Caesars and Fanatics for their second-chance offers.

It looks like every sportsbook basically has a decent offer this week so there's plenty to get your hands on!

Best Prop Bets NFL Week 14: Players to Watch

Justin Jefferson over 61.5 receiving yards (BetMGM)

We’re really buying low here. After a brutal performance by the Vikings offense last week in Seattle, I am expecting them to at least force feed their disgruntled (rightfully so) star wide receiver. Jefferson had one catch for -4 yards before the last drive of Sunday’s game.

JJ McCarthy is back this week, which somehow is an upgrade over Max Brosmer, but regardless, I expect Kevin O’Connell to scheme up a lot of plays to go Jefferson’s ways. It also helps that the Commanders defense ranks dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and are 30th in fantasy points allowed per game to WRs.

Plus, Washington is down to their 3rd and 4th string cornerbacks. Jefferson hasn’t eclipsed this number since mid-October, but I am betting that changes this Sunday.

NFL Betting Trends Week 14

• The Denver Broncos are a perfect 6-0 at home, the only undefeated team at home.
• The Over is 6-0 in the 1st Half of Cowboys' road games.
• The Cowboys are 8-4 to the over this year, and 10-2 to their team total over as well, both are best in the NFL.
• Detroit has won five straight games after Thanksgiving, going 4-0-1 ATS in those games.
• The underdog in Steelers-Ravens matchups are 29-12-3 ATS in the last 20 years.
• The Under is 6-0 in the 1st Half of Packers' home games.
• Teams that played the Jets the week prior are now 1-10 against the spread in their next game.

As I've said before, please remember that the above points are purely nuggets I find interesting - not betting guidance!

NFL Predictions and Picks Week 14: Our Top Plays

Cowboys +3

I’m going back to the well here for the third straight week.

The Dallas offense, led by Dak Prescott, continues to look terrific all season with 6 yards per play and nearly 30 points per game and now their defense is starting to show they’re closer to average than the cellar dweller they were pre-bye. I don’t see why that doesn’t continue on Thursday Night Football against a banged up Lions team.

It looks like Amon-Ra St. Brown will be out of action for this one, plus Penei Sewell is now questionable.  I’ll take the Cowboys on the road getting a field goal to kick off Week 14.

Texans +3.5

Once again, I like the Texans catching points on the road in Kansas City. A rematch of last year’s Divisional round matchup which was a 1-point game late in the 4th quarter before Kansas City won by 9.

The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss on Thanksgiving Day. This is truly a must win game for both teams, so I at least think Houston keeps this one close. The Texans defense is no joke and now the Chiefs are starting to get really banged up.

Kansas City just lost left tackle Josh Simmons for the year and now might be down 60% of their starting offensive line with right tackle Jawaan Taylor and guard Trey Smith still not practicing. This will be an incredibly tough test for a decimated Kansas City offense that is going up against the best defense in the NFL.

Give me field goal and the hook on Sunday Night Football.

Smart NFL Tips Week 14: Betting Like a Pro

Week 14 is where the season gets uncomfortable.

Teams are banged up, playoff paths tighten, and the market becomes hyper-efficient after three months of data. Books aren’t guessing anymore. They’re correcting. That means your edge comes from reading context better than the public, not from hunting for obvious misprices.

Here’s how to approach Week 14 like a pro:

1. Shop Aggressively for the Best Line: By Week 14, oddsmakers have dialed in most spreads and totals, so the value shows up in the margins. A half-point on a key number (3, 7, 10) often decides your expected value.
   
   With several teams playing in divisional matchups having multiple sportsbook accounts is the only way to consistently capture the top number before it’s corrected.
   
   
2. Separate Rest Advantage From Recency Bias: Week 14 is full of traps created by how teams looked last week. The public overreacts to blowouts, especially in December. Pros don’t. Focus on the structural edges: rest, travel spots, and matchups that actually translate; not one hot game in Week 13. Teams coming off late byes or extended rest often show sharper defensive performance than the market expects.
   
   
3. Track Injury Reports by the Hour: This is the time of year when half the league is listed as “limited” but still plays. What actually moves markets in Week 14: Offensive line injuries (hidden but critical), Cornerback absences in pass-heavy matchups, Backfield rotations affected by December wear and tear.
   
   Beat reporters become more valuable than the raw report. Confirmed upgrades or downgrades often move a line 1–1.5 points before most bettors notice.
   
   
4. Understand Why the Number is Moving: December brings two main drivers of line movement: true information and public panic. Pros ask one question before reacting: Was this move driven by sharp money or by hype? For example: A spread jumps because a QB was upgraded from doubtful to questionable? That’s info. A total crashes because fans hated what they saw on last week’s primetime game? That’s emotion. React accordingly!
   
   
5. Avoid Chasing Late Steam: Week 14 steam is dangerous. Especially in marquee matchups. The public piles in late, and if you follow those moves, you’re often taking numbers that sharp bettors grabbed 24 hours earlier. If the train has left the station, let it go. The worst bets in December come from trying to “get in anyway.”
   
   
6. Use Promos to Create Edges When Lines Are Tight: This deep into the season, edges from pure handicapping shrink. Boosts, insurance promos, and parlay tokens become much more valuable. Divisional games and late-season weather can make totals unpredictable (perfect spots for promo-assisted, low-risk plays).
   
   
7. Lean Into Weather… But Don’t Overreact: Cold weather doesn’t automatically mean unders. But wind still matters more than temperature, and December wind reports shift quickly. You’re looking for: sustained wind above 12–15 mph, late-week upgrades from “breezy” to “gusty”, teams with struggling kickers. Totals in these conditions often move several points once the market catches up.

This week is about discipline. Numbers get sharper. Narratives get louder. Injuries get weirder. Your job is to stay calm, stay informed, and bet only when the context gives you an advantage, not when the crowd tells you a story.

Let the other people chase what happened last week. You bet what actually matters this one.

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