NFL Best Bets Week 3 | Lines, Picks, Prop Bets & More

Week 3 is where everyone thinks they've got teams figured out after two games, but that's exactly when the NFL humbles you.

Remember last year when the Saints were laying 2.5 against the Eagles in Week 3? Yeah, those same Eagles who ended up in the Super Bowl. The lesson? Two games doesn't make a season. Your preseason evaluations still matter. Don't simply throw them out the window just because a team looked amazing or terrible for two weeks.

Smart money makes small adjustments based on what we've seen, not massive overreactions. The truth is, we're still figuring out who these teams really are, and the market tends to overshoot in both directions right about now. Two weeks is a tiny sample size in the grand scheme of things.

So let's dive in and unpick the best bets for NFL week 3.

NFL Betting Lines Week 3: Backup QBs Shake Up the Market

It’s only Week 3 and we’ve already got backup quarterbacks starting all over the league. Four teams are turning to their No. 2s, and the lines are moving fast because of it.

• Las Vegas vs. Washington – The Raiders were +6.5 before Jayden Daniels looked unlikely to play. With Marcus Mariota stepping in for Washington, that spread has crashed down to +3.5.
  
  
• Bengals vs. Vikings – Both teams are without their starters, with Joe Burrow and J.J. McCarthy sidelined. The total has plummeted from 47.5 to 42.5, a five-point swing that shows just how much the market respects QB play.

These kinds of adjustments are where sharp bettors find value — the question is whether the moves have gone too far or not far enough.

NFL Week 3 Promos: High-Variance = Big Value

The books are keeping the party going with some solid Week 3 offers that you need to grab.

FanDuel and DraftKings are running 50% profit boosts on any Thursday Night Football market - perfect for stacking with your strongest TNF play. Caesars is offering a no sweat token where you get your stake back in bonus bets if your bet loses - basically a free shot. Fanatics has the same no sweat deal, giving you multiple chances to take a swing.

These promos are especially valuable in Week 3 when variance is still high and upsets are common.

And as always we've thrown in the cream of the crop when it comes to NFL sportsbook promos in the shape of our favorite welcome bonuses. If you haven't signed up to any of these books yet, they're a must: 

1. FanDuel - Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets
2. Caesars - Bet $1 And Double Your Winnings on Your Next 20 Wagers
3. Fanatics - Bet $10, get $100 in FanCash
4. BetMGM - Bet $10, Get $150 in Bonus Bets OR $1,500 First Bet Offer
5. Borgata - Bet $20, Get $100 in Bonus Bets

Best Prop Bets NFL Week 3: Players to Watch

Props are where you can really get creative, and Week 3 is the perfect time to strike. Lines are still soft, books are adjusting slowly, and players are finding their roles. That means opportunities for mispriced numbers are everywhere if you know where to look.

Two names stand out this week:

Davante Adams over 62.5 receiving yards (BetMGM)

At 32 on a new team, this guy's putting up a strong 34% target share through two games, that's 6th highest in the entire NFL. The Stafford connection is already clicking. Adams ranks 8th in air yards.

For those who don't know, air yards measure how far the ball travels past the line of scrimmage on both completions and incompletions. It's basically telling us they're not just dinking and dunking - they're actually pushing the ball downfield to him.

Air yards are one of the best predictors for props because they show opportunity and intent. When a guy's getting that kind of downfield usage at that target share, 62.5 yards is just calling my name.

Kyle Pitts over 37.5 receiving yards (BetMGM)

Yes, you read that right. Kyle Freaking Pitts. The biggest disappointment in fantasy football might actually be...good? Look, I'm not saying a Year 4 breakout season is upon us, but something's different.

Pitts looks like his college self again. He ran a route on 100% of Atlanta's dropbacks last week, the first time that's happened since Week 1 of 2024. He's sitting at a 22% target share through two games, which is decent usage. Now he gets Carolina, who's been getting torched by tight ends.

We might get our first genuine Kyle Pitts smash game, and I can't believe I'm saying that.

NFL Parlay Picks Week 3: Beer Money Only

Week 3’s board sets up nicely for a little fun in the parlay market. Just remember — parlays are for beer money, not rent money.

One I like: Ravens ML + Chiefs ML at +100. Two heavy hitters who should handle business, and you get even money for the combo. Nothing fancy, just a sweat-worthy ticket to ride with all Sunday.

NFL Betting Trends Week 3: What the Numbers Say

By Week 3, the data starts to get interesting. Early-season trends mix with long-term patterns, and suddenly you’ve got angles worth paying attention to. From underdogs cashing in certain spots to coaches who just keep covering, these nuggets can point you toward edges the books haven’t fully priced in yet.

Here are a few of my favorites right now:

• Favorites of -3 or more are 19-2 straight up so far this year.
• 0-2 teams vs. non-winless opponents in Week 3 have gone 61% ATS over the last decade.
• AFC South underdogs are quietly crushing: 11-1 ATS in 2024, 45-27 ATS (63%) over the last six years.
• The Rams under McVay are 16-7-2 ATS on East Coast road trips — so much for the jet lag narrative.
• Jim Harbaugh as Chargers coach is now 14-5-1 ATS. The guy just wins and covers.

NFL Predictions and Picks Week 3: My Top Plays

Everyone’s got hot takes after two weeks, but this is where sharp picks separate from noise. The lines are moving, injuries are stacking up, and the public is chasing the wrong teams. That leaves us spots with real value — here are a couple of my favorites:

• Jets +7 - Third straight week fading Tampa and I'm going down with the ship. Justin Fields is out, but honestly, is there really that much difference between him and Tyrod Taylor? Tampa's O-line will be without their two best guys, with Wirfs and Goedeke out, and they lost defensive tackle Calijah Kancey for the year. Tampa allowed pressure on 49% of dropbacks Monday. This is a classic buy-low spot on the Jets after they looked terrible in Week 2 against the Bills.
  
  
• Chiefs -6.5 - Perfect get-right spot for Kansas City. The Giants offense won't repeat last week’s performance against Spags, who's blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL. Russell Wilson can barely move anymore, and the Giants' O-line is not built to handle the pressure they will see.
  
  
• Titans +4 - The Colts haven't punted through two games, but that ends in their first road divisional game. Daniel Jones is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. Reality check incoming.

NFL Tips Week 3: Betting Like a Pro

By Week 3, it’s easy to get swept up in hype — but the sharpest players stay disciplined. Here are the habits to keep front and center this week:

• Use those promos smartly – Boosts, no-sweats, and sign-up offers are more than perks. Using tools like the Promo Converter, you can flip them into profit no matter the outcome using a technique called matched betting.
  
  
• Don’t overreact to records – A 2-0 team might not be elite, and an 0-2 team isn’t automatically dead. The best value often comes from fading public overreactions.
  
  
• Lean on divisional dogs – History says underdogs in division games cover more often than not, especially early in the season.
  
  
• Chase good value, not just winners – EV betting is all about stacking bets where the odds are in your favor long term. That’s how sharps build bankrolls, not by chasing “locks.”
  
  
• Keep parlays in perspective – They’re a fun sweat, but not a strategy. Think pizza money, not mortgage money.

Bonus: Who doesn’t love a little extra? Stick around for the next section, we’ve got something lined up that could take your NFL season to the next level.

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