NFL Best Bets Week 9 | Lines, Picks, Prop Bets & More

We’re officially at the halfway mark of the NFL regular season. Somehow, it’s already November!

We’re starting to figure who the contenders truly are. The playoff push officially begins as we start the second half of the season. Every game is oh so important.

So let’s dive in and see how we’re attacking this week...

Can't-Miss NFL Week 9 Promos

FanDuel's running their standard profit boosts on primetime games, with an option of boosts from you to choose from.

DraftKings usually has their stepped-up same-game parlays this week.

And don't forget to check Caesars and Fanatics for their second-chance offers. 

Best Prop Bets NFL Week 9 – Players to Watch

Zay Flowers over 68.5 receiving yards (FanDuel): Lamar Jackson is returning after missing the past month. That’s great news for the Ravens No. 1 wideout who not only gets QB1 back, but is also going up against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL that just sent another cornerback to the IR.

Zay Flowers has a median of 74.5 receiving yards in Jackson starts this season. Lastly, Jackson and Flowers are both from the South Florida area, so I expect him to smash this number.

NFL Betting Trends Week 9

Favorites have been dominating all season, and especially, the past few weeks. Favorites were 11-2 ATS last week. And through eight weeks, favorites have their highest win % since 2013 at 69% (nice!).

Additionally, this is the most profitable start for favorites through eight weeks since 2009. Teams after playing the Jets are 0-7 ATS this season. The Titans are 5-24-1 ATS in their last 30 games. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS vs. Josh Allen and the Bills in the regular season, which is quite the opposite than the postseason (4-0).

Mike Tomlin is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog off a loss. The Patriots are the only team in 2025 that has not surrendered 50 yards to a running back through the first eight games of the season. It is the first time in team history that has occurred. There are five matchups with totals over 50 this week.

As I say every week, please don't blindly follow these trends. These are simply things that  I find interesting.

NFL Predictions and Picks Week 9 – Our Top Plays

Falcons +6

Yes, I am backing the Atlanta Falcons here after they laid another egg against one of the worst teams in the league. I should caveat though they were missing both their starting QB Michael Penix and stud WR Drake London.

Yes, it was a 34-10 thumping at home to the lowly Dolphins and are now going on the road to face the 6-2 Patriots, give me Atlanta here with the Points. While Drake Maye and the Pats are cooking, they also haven’t played anyone formidable opponent outside of the Bills this season. It’s been easy sledding for New England, but I still think this Atlanta team is decent. They’re Jekyll and Hyde.

Quietly, the Falcons defense has been stout ranking 2nd in the NFL in explosive Pass% allowed. That’s where the Pats thrive: generating explosives through the air. Penix and London should be back this week.

Chiefs ML -120

I know Kansas City has struggled against Buffalo in their regular season matchups recently, but I just KC is a much better team. I know Buffalo just won 40-9 (we were on them last week!) but I don’t buy into their defense being any good, and now they’ll be without arguably their best defensive player, Ed Oliver, who just went on IR.

After a slow start, Kansas City is starting to look like their old selves with Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice back. Buffalo is vulnerable in the middle of the field, where those two plus Travis Kelce feast. Buffalo also is horrible against the run, ranking 31st in the NFL and now without their best DT. I’ll take my chances with Ferrari Pat and the Chiefs here.

NFL Tips Week 9: Betting Like a Pro 

We’ve covered the lines, props, and all the Week 9 chatter - but this is where things really come together. These five insights are the kind of sharp strategies that could help you find real value. Overlook them at your own risk.

1. Don’t Let Your Promos Go to Waste: Use matched betting to lock in profit from sign-up offers, boosts, and insurance bets. Promos aren’t just perks — they’re guaranteed value when used smartly (more on this in the next section).
   
   
2. Fade the Overreactions: Line shifts after preseason injuries or trades often create inflated spreads. Staying disciplined and betting against public overreaction is where sharp bettors make their money in Week 9.
   
   
3. Stick to Divisional Dogs: History favors divisional underdogs catching points early. These teams know each other too well for lopsided lines, making them some of the most reliable Week 1 value plays. Use EV to Max Long Term Profit: Always look for bets with positive expected value. Over time, EV betting separates lucky bettors from consistent winners - it’s the sharpest edge you can have.
   
   
4. Use EV to Max Long Term Profit: Always look for bets with positive expected value. Over time, EV betting separates lucky bettors from consistent winners - it’s the sharpest edge you can have.
   
   
5. Keep Parlays in Check: Same-game parlays can be fun, but they’re not a profit engine. Bet them for entertainment only, and never let them replace your core straight wagers.

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