NFL Best Bets Week 6 | Lines, Picks, Prop Bets & More

It’s hard to believe it is already Week 6 but here we are. There are no undefeated teams left in the NFL, but don’t worry, we still have a winless one!

Yep, you guessed it, the New York football Jets. It’s hard to believe the team with the longest playoff drought in the four major professional sports is still this bad. 

So let's take a look at what could be in store for us all this week...

Breaking Down the NFL Betting Lines Week 6

The Week 6 lines are tough this week. Personally, I think this is the toughest week to figure out all season. I do not love the board, but we’re going to try and find some winners.

There are only two games thus far that are within a field goal spread. Perhaps we’ll see some chaos though!

Can't-Miss NFL Week 6 Promos

Even though we're at Week 5, the quality of NFL betting promos available this week is still super high.

FanDuel's running their standard profit boosts on primetime games. DraftKings usually has their stepped-up same-game parlays this week. Don't forget to check Caesars and Fanatics for their second-chance offers.

Best Prop Bets NFL Week 6: Players to Watch

Breece Hall over 29.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)

It appears that Garrett Wilson will likely be shadowed closely by Patrick Surtain throughout the day.

Additionally, Denver's defense ranks 31st in DVOA defending against passes to running backs, and they have consistently allowed opposing RB1s to gain an average of 29 receiving yards per game

 Plus, I expect the Jets to be playing from behind and will suspect Breece to be a key piece of the passing game. Breece has cleared this number in all but one game this season.

NFL Betting Trends Week 6

Just last week, three underdogs of over a TD won outright which is rare! The NFC is having its way with AFC opponents so far, as they are 18-9 ATS in interconference play this season. Mike Tomlin is 23-5 SU and 18-10 ATS against rookie QBs since 2010.

Eli Manning was the last Giants QB to win in primetime against the Eagles all the way back in 2008! As an underdog, the tandem of Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 22-9 ATS.

These aren’t recommendations, just data points that stood out to me, so please don't follow blindly.

NFL Predictions and Picks Week 6: Our Top Plays

Broncos -7

As an unbiased Jets fan they absolutely stink. I would be shocked if this team with a rookie HC (and seemingly bad one!) go across the pond at London and keep this within 7.

The Jets cannot get out of their own way. The Jets are the only team in the NFL without a turnover, it's been five weeks! They average 8 penalties per game. Add in the fact their only playmaker, Garrett Wilson, will likely be blanketed by reigning defensive player of the year, Patrick Surtain.

The Denver defense is a beast, ranking 3rd in EPA and 1st in success rate.

Lions +3

I know this number is long gone, but I like Detroit getting a field goal here on the road. KC is coming off a tough game on a short week. Despite losing both coordinators in the offseason, the Lions have not skipped a beat jumping out to a 4-1 record. Granted they haven't really been tested yet this season outside of Week 1.

The Detroit Lions rank #1 in all major offensive categories through the first five weeks of the season.

Steelers -5

This is just a brutal spot for the Browns who opted to not take a bye after their trip to London. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye as well. Couple this with the fact Mike Tomlin and the Steelers usually dominate rookie QBs and I am willing to back the Steelers. 

Smart NFL Tips Week 6: Betting Like a Pro

By Week 6, the market has caught up: oddsmakers have real data, teams have clear identities, and value gets harder to find. But that’s exactly why smart bettors shine right now. It’s no longer about who you think will win; it’s about spotting inefficiencies, managing timing, and using every edge available.

Here’s how to approach Week 6 like a pro:

• Track Market Movement Daily: Lines are tightening, but late-week moves often reveal where sharp money is landing. Follow those shifts closely, especially on key numbers like 3 or 7, and be ready to react fast.
  
  
• Buy the Dip on Good Teams: A few bad games don’t make a contender suddenly weak. When the public overreacts to a single loss, that’s your chance to grab value at a discount.
  
  
• Don’t Overvalue Hot Starts: Some early-season surprises fade fast. Teams with unsustainable stats, like high turnover luck or low red-zone defense, are prime regression candidates. Use that to your advantage.
  
  
• Keep an Eye on Travel and Fatigue: Teams crossing time zones or playing consecutive road games tend to underperform. Factor in rest, travel, and body-clock effects before betting sides or totals.
  
  
• Use Promos with Purpose: Free bets, odds boosts, and insurance promos are still goldmines if you use matched betting strategies. They’re not gimmicks — they’re tools for guaranteed, low-risk profit when used smartly.

By this point in the season, everyone’s working with the same stats but few are working with the same strategy. The pros aren’t guessing; they’re managing information, finding inefficiencies, and letting the numbers guide them. Stay disciplined, avoid emotional bets, and keep your edge sharp heading into the heart of the NFL season.

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